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HELLO and welcome to Transition Playbook. The next big moment for Brussels is next week, when members of the European Parliament will vote on a second term for Ursula von der Leyen. You know the numbers by now — 361 votes out of 720 is what she needs. Pass that mark and VDL 2 will be formed (more on the names in the frame for Commissioner posts below). Fail and it’s chaos. Von der Leyen will be out and EU leaders will have to scramble and come up with another candidate.
So this week has been all about behind-the-scenes dealmaking. That and the formation of two — two! – new far-right groupings in the Parliament.
WHILE VDL SCRAMBLES FOR VOTES, COMMISSION PUZZLE STARTS TO EMERGE: Instead of facing the heat at the NATO summit in Washington, Ursula von der Leyen spent her week in the European Parliament to try to secure enough votes for a second term. Things are still looking extremely tight, and von der Leyen and her right-hand man Björn Seibert are seeing as many delegations and individual lawmakers as possible to try and secure the necessary 361 votes in Strasbourg next week.
Meanwhile, EU countries have started putting forward names for VDL 2: A number of countries have already made clear who they will send as their next commissioner, with Sweden’s EU minister Jessika Roswall the latest official candidate. She comes on top of Ireland’s Michael McGrath, Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis, Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič, Finland’s Henna Virkkunnen, Slovenia’s Tomaž Vesel (plus of course Germany’s von der Leyen and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas).
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Other rumors on Commissioners: The chances of Austria’s EU minister Karoline Edstadler being nominated have gone down … Belgium’s Didier Reynders is positioning himself to clinch a second term … Czech ambassador to the EU Edita Hrdá is unlikely to get the job … Warsaw’s mayor Rafał Trzaskowski’s name is in the mix to become Polish commissioner, alongside acting Polish ambassador to the EU Piotr Serafin … former MEP and trade minister Liesje Schreinemacher’s name is floated as Dutch commissioner.
Complex puzzle ahead: If von der Leyen clinches another five years in the Berlaymont next week, the work is far from over. She’ll immediately have to start the complex puzzle to assemble her new Commission, taking into account not just gender balance, but also party balance and geographical balances between the different portfolios.
— by Barbara Moens
CRUNCH TIME: Ursula von der Leyen’s future as president of the European Commission will be decided next Thursday at 1 p.m. by a secret vote in the European Parliament. POLITICO had an inside look at von der Leyen and her team’s charm offensive ahead of the all-important ballot.
What are friends for? Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said he would support von der Leyen’s bid for a second term and encourage his buddies in the European Conservatives and Reformists group to do the same. “She is a good president of the European Commission, she understood also the problems of Central Europe, she was very clear from the beginning of the Russian aggression,” Fiala explained.
Não, níl, ne: Portuguese Renew MEP João Cotrim de Figueiredo, Ireland’s Fianna Fáil MEPs and Slovenian S&D MEP Matjaž Nemec have said they won’t vote for von der Leyen.
WHAT, ANOTHER ONE? After Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz joined forces to create the Patriots for Europe group, another new far-right group, Europe of Sovereign Nations, was founded in the European Parliament on Wednesday, uniting some of Europe’s most right-wing forces. Background here.
Happy days: As she departed the group’s founding meeting, MEP Christine Anderson from Germany’s AfD told a pack of reporters that the negotiations went “extremely well.” Anderson was picked to be the group’s chief whip, while René Aust, also from AfD, was made co-president together with Stanisław Tyszka from Poland’s Confederation.
WHO’S WHO 1: Patriots for Europe’s members are National Rally (France), Fidesz (Hungary), League (Italy), Vox (Spain), Chega (Portugal), Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (Czech Republic), Oath and Motorists (Czech Republic), Christian Democratic People’s Party (Hungary), Freedom Party (Austria), Party for Freedom (Netherlands), Vlaams Belang (Belgium), Danish People’s Party, Voice of Reason (Greece), and Latvia First.
WHO’S WHO 2: Europe of Sovereign Nations’ members are Alternative for Germany, Confederation (Poland), Revival (Bulgaria), Reconquête (France), Republic Movement (Slovakia), Our Homeland Movement (Hungary), People and Justice Union (Lithuania), and Freedom and Direct Democracy (Czech Republic).
COMMITTEE SHUFFLE: When the groups in the Parliament met on Monday evening to decide who would chair the powerful committees, the Patriots chose to lead the transport and culture committees. But when those committees meet for the first time on July 23 to formally choose their leadership, other groups are expected to put up candidates to block the Patriots.
We’ve seen this film before: The same thing happened five years ago when centrist groups imposed a cordon sanitaire on the Patriots’ predecessor, Identity & Democracy, thwarting that group’s plans to lead the agriculture and legal affairs committees. The firewall extended to vice-chair positions last time around. More here.
COSTA’S COS: Pedro Lourtie, Portugal’s ambassador to the EU, is set to become the chief of staff for António Costa when he takes over as president of the European Council, three EU officials said.
STELLAAAA: Cyprus’ Stella Kyriakides, who has been serving as European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety since 2019, will not put her hand up for a second term.
VESTA[N]GER: Margrethe Vestager angrily rebuffed claims that she approved an airline deal to help secure Italian government support for Ursula von der Leyen’s second term. The EU’s competition chief lashed out at reporters quizzing her over this month’s approval of Lufthansa’s bid for Italian state-owned (and loss-making) airline, ITA Airways. More here.
HANG ON, MARIO: Mario Draghi’s long-awaited report on how to make the European Union’s economy more competitive is now likely to be delayed until September. Draghi has been tasked with drawing up a blueprint for overhauling the bloc’s rules to help businesses take on rivals in the United States and China. But it is now all but certain to be pushed back to September, while von der Leyen is working full-time to secure the support she needs from MEPs to win a second term as European Commission president.
GREEK BACKING: Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas said von der Leyen deserves a second term because she made the right calls at big moments like the Covid-19 pandemic and the Belarus migration crisis. “It’s undisputed that she has this leadership quality,” he told our Playbook colleagues. “She has cold blood and she is also pro-European.”
What would happen if the vote goes against her? “A major institutional crisis … would not be the outcome that any reasonable person would like,” Schinas said. “There is only Plan A.”
HABECK FOR CHANCELLOR? German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who is optimistic about his party’s chances at next year’s election despite its dismal polling, is widely expected to put up his hand to be the Greens’ candidate for Chancellor. Story here.
SCHINAS TO BREAK THE GREEK MOULD? Margaritis Schinas needs the backing of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis for a second term as commissioner. Would he like to stay on? “Yes, because if he thinks that he would like someone like me to continue, of course I will continue. It would be a great honor.” He told Playbook that no Greek commissioner has ever got a second term.
Current excitement level: Is it weird to be singing “The Magic Number” by De La Soul but the magic number in question isn’t 3 but 361? Don’t answer that.
Last word: “Good luck getting Plenković or Mitsotakis through that vote,” an EU official speaking about the Croatian and Greek prime ministers as potential alternatives if Ursula von der Leyen gets rejected by MEPs.
Thanks to: Seb Starcevic, Eddy Wax, Barbara Moens, Paul Dallison and Lola Boom.
**A message from Johnson & Johnson: We’ve put a lot of thought into how to achieve our vision. The life science industry is a key pillar to the European economy. By empowering innovation and transformation, we can better serve society and make sure that Europe remains at the forefront. We need to reinforce the current IP and incentives framework with an innovation first approach. We need to help patients get access to the best new medicines by making Europe globally attractive. Our life sciences need to be fit for the digital age. We must push for environmental sustainability without impacting the availability of safe medical solutions. There should be strong policies that support the use, access, and sharing of health data, and we need to maintain the global, diversified supply chains that are critical to being prepared for external shocks. You can get an in-depth picture of our hopes by watching our film here.**
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